Financial contagion of the economy tourism sector in different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The purpose of the study is to identify the financial contagion that spread through the channels of the stock market in the economy tourist segment of different countries during the COVID-19 pandemic. The tourism industry has proved to be extremely susceptible to the pandemic shock, so it is necessary to have objective quantitative estimates of this susceptibility. The study is based on an extensive empirical base, including data on stock indices that reflect the stock quotes of the largest travel companies. The method of advanced correlation analysis was used as a specific method of detecting financial contagion, based on the Forbes-Rigobon approach. The classic Forbes-Rigobon test was supplemented with a sliding dynamic method, which made it possible to identify the intensity of country contagion in the tourism sector. The peculiarities of understanding the financial contagion essence in economic systems are revealed. A brief overview of modern research on the infection problems in tourism is made. A statistical analysis of COVID-19 impact on a number of countries has been carried out, the pandemic features and consequences for the tourism sector have been identified. For 5 countries (China, Taiwan, Great Britain, Greece and Turkey), test statistics for financial contagion are calculated. Dynamic estimates of the contagion were obtained, which allowed us to obtain a picture of the scale and intensity of financial contagion in international tourist markets during the pandemic. The recipients of financial infection from China were the tourist markets of Taiwan and Greece. At the same time, these countries turned out to be transmitters of financial contagion at the same time – with varying intensity, they transmitted it to other tourist markets.